Odds of Fed Rate Cut in December Continue to Increase

In December, the probabilities of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged past 80%, signaling optimism in the American financial landscape. Major stock indices, including the three giants of Wall Street, set historic records; the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally closed above 45,000 for the first time. Additionally, the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities rose steadily, reflecting a seemingly exuberant market environment.

Yet, juxtaposed with market jubilation, the sentiments expressed by several Federal Reserve officials during their speeches were remarkably hawkish. This dichotomy was particularly evident as discussions surrounding economic strategies unfolded amid an atmosphere filled with speculation and caution.

One of the most pronounced voices among these officials was that of St. Louis Fed President, Jim Bullard. Bullard, who took office last year succeeding renowned hawk James Bullard, conveyed a clear message regarding the current inflationary pressures. He highlighted the need for policymakers to adopt a more tempered stance when it comes to reducing interest rates in light of persistent inflation levels exceeding their target and signs of improvement in the labor market.

When questioned about the possibility of pausing interest rate cuts during the upcoming meetings, Bullard emphasized that the timing of such decisions hinges on real-time economic conditions. He suggested, “It could be December, or it could be January. We might also decide to hold off for a while longer.” This statement insinuated a level of unpredictability that kept market participants on alert.

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Coinciding with Bullard's remarks, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also lent a stricter tone to the conversation about interest rates. He advocated for a more gradual approach to rate cuts, suggesting that normalizing interest levels should involve a "measured and cautious path" to arrive at a neutral rate. Barkin’s perspective aligned with the broader concerns within the Federal Reserve regarding the efficacy of aggressive monetary easing.

Contrastingly, when the spotlight turned to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, attendees were left without clear indications of an impending rate cut. During an interview in New York, Powell noted that the U.S. economy has exhibited stronger-than-expected performance since the decision to cut rates in September, leading to an expectation of cautiousness among policymakers moving forward.

Powell’s statements seemed to sync with the more cautious tones from his colleagues, reinforcing the notion that the Federal Reserve might not rush into decisions regarding interest rates. He added, “We can afford to be a bit more prudent as we strive to find the neutral position.”

Such comments appeared to sync with emerging perspectives suggesting that the Federal Reserve should deliberate more thoroughly when considering interest rate cuts, without feeling pressured into swift action.

In addition to these key figures, the latest release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book also shed illuminating light on the economic climate. This report indicated a slight uptick in economic activity in the U.S. for November, with businesses expressing a more optimistic outlook regarding demand. Observers noted a significant reduction in the number of times “slow” appeared throughout the document, suggesting a tempered but positive view of the economy.

Ideally, the hawkish stances of the aforementioned Federal Reserve officials and the optimistic economic projections in the Beige Book would hint at a decreasing likelihood of rate cuts. However, remarkably, the market indicators pointed in a contrary direction. The probability of a December rate cut, as gauged by futures market traders, continued to escalate.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool revealed that traders' expectations for a December rate cut climbed to 78% on Wednesday, a notable rise from the previous day’s 72%. During intraday trading, the figure briefly surpassed 80%, reflecting growing confidence among market participants regarding upcoming monetary policy shifts.

Market analysts offered various theories to explain this anomaly, particularly under circumstances where hawkish comments dominated the narrative. Many attributed this paradox to relatively disappointing economic data released that day. The ADP employment report revealed a 146,000 increase in private sector jobs for November, falling short of economists' expectations of 150,000. Additionally, a survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated a slowdown in service industry activity in November, following several months of robust growth.

Others speculated that the recent waves of political unrest could be accelerating a global trend toward monetary easing. For instance, recent political turbulence in France, where far-right and far-left parliamentarians rallied together to propose a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Barnier and his administration, deepened the existing political crisis in the Eurozone's second-largest economy.

Amidst these intricate dynamics, the responses from stock and bond markets reverberated in sync with changing rate cut expectations. On Wednesday, the Dow peaked at an impressive 45,073.63 points, the S&P 500 climbed to 6,089.84 points, and the Nasdaq hit 19,741.76 points, each establishing new intraday records. This was particularly notable as the S&P 500 saw its fourth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow marked its historic entry above 45,000.

Simultaneously, bond prices surged as Treasury yields across the board also fell significantly. The two-year Treasury yield dipped by 5.2 basis points to 4.136%, the five-year yield decreased by 4.4 basis points to 4.073%, the ten-year yield declined by 4.5 basis points to 4.184%, and the thirty-year yield experienced a reduction of 5.7 basis points to 4.347%.

Vail Hartman, a capital market analyst at Montreal Bank, remarked, “The market still anticipates a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed in December, however, upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data are likely to have a larger impact.”

Before the December decision is finalized, two key economic reports will be released—namely, the non-farm payroll data for November this Friday and the Consumer Price Index report next Wednesday. With Powell's recent inability to provide definitive guidance on rate cuts, the performance of these reports could ultimately sway the Fed’s upcoming decisions.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, highlighted the significance of Friday's non-farm payroll report, predicting it would serve as the week's focal point concerning economic data.